sarimax-based power outage prediction
SARIMAX-Based Power Outage Prediction During Extreme Weather Events
Ye, Haoran, Sun, Qiuzhuang, Yang, Yang
This study develops a SARIMAX-based prediction system for short-term power outage forecasting during extreme weather events. Using hourly data from Michigan counties with outage counts and comprehensive weather features, we implement a systematic two-stage feature engineering pipeline: data cleaning to remove zero-variance and unknown features, followed by correlation-based filtering to eliminate highly correlated predictors. The selected features are augmented with temporal embeddings, multi-scale lag features, and weather variables with their corresponding lags as exogenous inputs to the SARIMAX model. To address data irregularity and numerical instability, we apply standardization and implement a hierarchical fitting strategy with sequential optimization methods, automatic downgrading to ARIMA when convergence fails, and historical mean-based fallback predictions as a final safeguard. The model is optimized separately for short-term (24 hours) and medium-term (48 hours) forecast horizons using RMSE as the evaluation metric. Our approach achieves an RMSE of 177.2, representing an 8.4\% improvement over the baseline method (RMSE = 193.4), thereby validating the effectiveness of our feature engineering and robust optimization strategy for extreme weather-related outage prediction.
- North America > Trinidad and Tobago > Trinidad > Arima > Arima (0.25)
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- North America > United States > New York > New York County > New York City (0.05)
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- Information Technology > Data Science > Data Quality (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks > Deep Learning (0.69)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Optimization (0.67)